Are Recent Headlines Right?
If you’ve seen the recent headlines or social media posts predicting a housing crash, you’re not alone. It’s easy to feel uncertain when the news sounds alarmist or when people online insist home prices are about to plummet.
But here’s the reality: the data doesn’t support a crash narrative. Instead, it points toward steady, gradual growth in home values over the next several years.
Yes, real estate is always local, and conditions vary by region. Some areas will experience stronger price growth, while others may see smaller gains or brief dips. But overall, national data shows that home prices are expected to rise, not fall, through at least 2029.
What the Experts Are Really Saying
To understand what’s truly happening, it helps to look at the most comprehensive expert survey available: the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae.
Each quarter, this survey gathers insights from over 100 of the nation’s top economists, housing analysts, and real estate professionals. Their combined projections provide a clear view of where the market is likely headed.
In the most recent HPES report, the experts agreed that home prices will continue climbing nationally for at least the next five years.
When you look at the data, every bar in the graph represents an increase, not a decline. The only difference is the pace of appreciation—how quickly or slowly values are expected to grow each year.
To put that into perspective:
- The overall average projection shows prices increasing about 15% between now and 2029.
- The optimists predict closer to 26% growth in that same period.
- Even the pessimists—the most cautious forecasters—expect prices to rise by roughly 5%.
That consistency across expert opinions is important. Not one major forecasting group anticipates a nationwide decline, let alone a crash.
How These Forecasts Compare to “Normal”
For context, the projections suggest price growth between 2% and 3.5% per year for the next five years. Historically, the average rate of appreciation over the last 25 years has been closer to 4% to 5% annually.
That means today’s forecasted growth is slightly below the long-term average but still healthy and sustainable.
It’s also a welcome change from what we saw during the pandemic years, when home prices rose at an unsustainable pace—sometimes 15% to 20% per year—due to record-low interest rates, limited inventory, and fierce competition.
Those pandemic-era price surges were the exception, not the rule. What we’re seeing now is a return to balance—a more stable housing market where prices grow steadily rather than skyrocketing overnight.
Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon
So, if prices rose so sharply during the pandemic, shouldn’t they be falling now to correct? That’s a common misconception, but it doesn’t hold up historically.
The idea that “what goes up must come down” doesn’t really apply to real estate. Home prices have shown remarkable long-term resilience, even through major economic events.
The key reason is simple: supply and demand.
Even with higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges, there are still far more buyers looking for homes than there are homes available for sale. This ongoing inventory shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices across most of the country.
As long as demand outpaces supply, prices have little room to drop significantly. Instead, they tend to rise gradually, reflecting both market fundamentals and population growth.
Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, put it succinctly:
“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high.”
That momentum, combined with low housing inventory, supports steady appreciation—not a downturn.
A Look Back at Historical Resilience
If the economy is what’s making you nervous, it may help to zoom out. Over the past 50 years, the housing market has weathered numerous recessions, interest rate cycles, and global disruptions. And every time, it has recovered—often stronger than before.
Homes are not just a financial investment; they’re also a fundamental need. People will always need places to live, and that underlying demand has historically driven housing stability, even during uncertain times.
Today’s market may look different from what we saw during the pandemic, but the fundamentals are far healthier than they were leading up to the 2008 crash. Lending standards are stricter, buyers are more financially qualified, and the oversupply that fueled that collapse simply doesn’t exist.
What It Means for You
If you’ve been holding off on buying or selling because you’re worried about a potential crash, it’s worth reevaluating that decision. The data tells a much more balanced story—one of continued, sustainable growth.
Instead of focusing on sensational headlines, look at the consistent forecasts from industry experts. They all point toward ongoing appreciation, supported by strong demand and limited supply.
Whether you’re a buyer hoping to enter the market or a homeowner considering selling, understanding these trends can help you make confident, informed choices.
Talk with a trusted real estate agent who can interpret these national insights in the context of your local market. Every area moves at its own pace, and a knowledgeable agent can show you exactly what’s happening in your neighborhood and what it means for your next move.
The question isn’t whether home prices will rise—it’s simply how much they’ll grow in the years ahead.