The Texas real estate market, once known for its booming growth and steady inflow of new residents, is facing an unprecedented slowdown. According to a new analysis from Redfin, only 28 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes (2.8%) have changed hands in 2025, marking the lowest home turnover rate in more than three decades.
Across the country, housing activity has cooled dramatically, but the chill feels especially sharp in the Lone Star State, where major cities like San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth have seen home sales plunge compared to previous years.
Texas Homeowners Are Staying Put
Redfin’s data shows that Texas metros rank among the hardest-hit markets when it comes to declining home turnover. In San Antonio, home sales dropped by nearly 27% year over year, the steepest decline among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas.
Meanwhile, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston are also seeing fewer homes change hands, with turnover rates falling well below national averages. These once-booming Texas real estate hubs, fueled by migration and job growth during the pandemic, are now seeing stagnation as homeowners choose to stay put rather than sell.
Economists say this slowdown isn’t about a lack of housing, it’s about a lack of movement.
“Texas real estate markets are frozen not because there aren’t enough homes,” explains Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, “but because there aren’t enough reasons for homeowners to give up their existing low mortgage rates.”
The Mortgage Rate Lock Effect
The biggest anchor holding the Texas real estate market in place is the mortgage rate lock-in phenomenon. Over 70% of U.S. homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%, while the current average rate sits around 6.2%.
For many Texans, trading up to a new home would mean doubling their monthly payments, a dealbreaker even for those who’d otherwise consider moving. This dynamic has created a kind of real estate gridlock across Texas, where fewer sellers list their homes and fewer buyers can afford to jump in.
As a result, home listings are near historic lows. In the first nine months of 2025, only 3.9% of all homes in the U.S. were listed for sale — the third-slowest rate since records began in 2012. Texas cities mirror this national trend, with sellers hesitant to test the market and buyers waiting for interest rates or prices to come down.
The Affordability Crunch in Texas Real Estate
While Texas has long been touted as a more affordable housing market compared to coastal states, rising prices and high borrowing costs have eroded much of that advantage.
In areas like Austin, median home prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels, while property taxes and insurance premiums have climbed, putting additional pressure on homeowners. Combined with elevated interest rates, the total cost of homeownership in Texas has made it difficult for many first-time buyers to break in, and for current homeowners to trade up.
This affordability crunch has led to a “wait-it-out” mentality across much of the Texas real estate market. Buyers are holding off in hopes of future rate cuts, and sellers are holding tight to their historically low mortgage deals. The result: fewer transactions and record-low turnover.
A Market Defined by Hesitation
Across the Texas real estate landscape, caution is the defining emotion. Redfin reports that more buyers are walking away from deals, not necessarily because they can’t afford the home, but because they’re uncertain whether now is the right time to commit.
Economic concerns, from inflation to job stability, continue to weigh on consumer confidence. Even as inventory slightly improves, the lack of urgency on both sides has pushed sales to a crawl.
“America’s housing market, and Texas in particular, is defined right now by hesitation,” Zhao said. “When both buyers and sellers pause, the market slows to a near standstill.”
City-by-City Breakdown: Where Texas Real Estate Is Cooling Fastest
Here’s how some of the major Texas metro areas stack up in terms of home turnover rates in 2025:
| Metro Area | Sales per 1,000 Homes | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 24 | -26.9% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 27 | -18.2% |
| Houston | 25 | -15.7% |
| Austin | 23 | -14.5% |
| El Paso | 28 | -10.1% |
Texas cities like San Antonio and Dallas are seeing some of the sharpest declines in the nation, reflecting both affordability challenges and rate-lock effects.
By contrast, some smaller Texas markets, particularly in Midland, Lubbock, and Corpus Christi, are holding steadier, thanks to lower prices and more local buyer activity.
Will Texas Real Estate Bounce Back?
Despite the slump, many economists remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term future of Texas real estate. Population growth, strong job markets, and ongoing business relocation trends continue to make Texas a desirable destination for homebuyers and investors.
However, until mortgage rates decline or home prices adjust, turnover is likely to remain sluggish. If rates drop closer to 5%, experts anticipate a surge in pent-up demand, especially in fast-growing suburbs around Dallas, Austin, and Houston.
For now, though, Texas real estate is in a deep freeze, a rare pause in a state where “For Sale” signs once seemed to sprout on every block.
The Texas real estate market has entered a new phase, one defined not by bidding wars and record prices, but by patience, caution, and staying put. With the lowest home turnover rate in 30 years, homeowners across Texas are holding tight to their properties and their low rates, while buyers wait for conditions to improve.
For real estate agents, investors, and anyone watching the market, the message is clear: Texas isn’t out of the game, it’s just on pause.